Last Saturday was exactly why this column exists. Texas survived Knoxville by three, Florida took our Game of the Week and turned it into a 52-28 demolition of No. 4 Ole Miss, Mississippi State rewarded the Sleeper Game designation by beating ranked Missouri, and Arkansas responded to me picking Tulsa by winning 34-6, which I can only assume was a personal attack. Fair enough.
We go again tomorrow with a slightly smaller SEC slate, but there is still plenty to work with. Five conference games are on the board, six ranked SEC teams are in action, Florida suddenly looks terrifying, Mississippi State has gone from an interesting September story to a ranked 4-0 football team, Tennessee is trying to recover from a three-point loss to No. 1 Texas, and Alabama is making the short trip west to Starkville to find out whether the Bulldogs are actually ready to crash the top tier of the conference.
That last one is where we are going, because this week, the cowbells get the big television.
No. 7 Alabama at No. 16 Mississippi State
11:00 AM CT — Starkville, Mississippi
A week ago, Mississippi State was my sleeper game. That label no longer applies.
The Bulldogs beat No. 19 Missouri 31-24 Saturday night to move to 4-0, and Kamario Taylor once again looked like one of the most interesting quarterbacks in the SEC, throwing for 360 yards and three touchdowns while helping Mississippi State erase a fourth-quarter deficit and score the final 14 points of the game. The win pushed State all the way up to No. 16 in the new poll, and suddenly the Bulldogs are not just a fun early-season story anymore.
Now Alabama comes to town.
This is exactly the sort of game I wanted to see once Mississippi State started looking legitimate, because there is a big difference between beating a ranked Missouri team and lining up across from Alabama with everybody suddenly paying attention. The Tide is also 4-0 and coming off a 49-18 beating of South Carolina, with Keelon Russell throwing for 365 yards and four touchdowns while the Alabama defense continued its early habit of turning mistakes into points.
So we have one quarterback coming off a 360-yard, three-touchdown game, another coming off 365 and four scores, and Davis Wade Stadium is going to sound like somebody locked 60,000 people inside a metal shed full of cowbells. That sounds like a pretty good way to spend Saturday morning.
The history here is obviously ugly for Mississippi State. Alabama has owned this series for years, and the Bulldogs have not beaten the Tide since 2007. Still, that is not why this is the Game of the Week. It is the Game of the Week because this is the first Saturday where Mississippi State no longer gets to be treated like the cute little surprise of the SEC. If you beat a ranked Missouri team, start 4-0 and climb to No. 16, then congratulations, because your reward is Alabama.
The biggest question for me is whether Mississippi State’s offense can continue doing what it has been doing when the windows get tighter, and the margin for error gets smaller. Taylor has been excellent at creating explosive plays, but Alabama has been ruthless whenever opposing quarterbacks give the defense a chance to steal possessions. Mississippi State does not need to completely shut down Russell to win this game, because I am not sure anybody is doing that right now, but the Bulldogs do need to force Alabama to earn long drives, keep the Tide from creating short fields and avoid the kind of avalanche where a 14-10 game becomes 35-10 before anybody really figures out what happened.
I think Mississippi State hangs around. In fact, I think the Bulldogs make Alabama uncomfortable for most of the afternoon, but until State proves it can finish this particular job, I am not picking against Alabama.
Gary’s Pick: Alabama
No. 8 Florida at No. 25 Missouri
2:30 PM CT — Columbia, Missouri
Florida certainly made me look stupid last week.
I picked Ole Miss, and Florida responded by scoring 52 points on them. Point taken.
The Gators didn’t merely upset the No. 4 team in the country, either. They ran through them. Florida finished with more than 300 rushing yards, scored touchdowns on its first five possessions of the second half, and turned what looked like a dangerous matchup into one of the more impressive performances of the entire SEC weekend.
Now Florida is 4-0, 2-0 in conference play and ranked No. 8, and Missouri is coming from the exact opposite direction. The Tigers went into Starkville ranked No. 19, fell behind 14-0, fought all the way back to take a 24-17 lead, and still managed to lose 31-24 after Mississippi State closed the game with 14 unanswered points.
That is what makes this the second game to watch. We already know what Florida looked like when everything clicked at home. Now I want to see what happens on the road after everybody spends an entire week telling the Gators how great they are.
Missouri is also better than the final result in Starkville might suggest. Coming back from two touchdowns down and taking the lead on the road against a ranked team takes something, even if the Tigers could not finish. The problem is that Florida just demonstrated what happens when you give them extra chances.
If Missouri starts slowly again and Florida establishes the same kind of running game it had against Ole Miss, the Tigers may spend another Saturday trying to dig themselves out of a hole. I doubted Florida last week and got punished for it, so I am officially done doing that until the Gators give me a reason.
Gary’s Pick: Florida
Vanderbilt at No. 2 Georgia
11:45 AM CT — Athens, Georgia
Vanderbilt gave Auburn everything it wanted last week before eventually falling 21-15, while Georgia had considerably less trouble with Oklahoma, putting the Sooners away 41-13 and holding its place near the top of the national rankings. Vanderbilt has enough to make this annoying for a while, especially if Georgia comes out flat, but Georgia is also one of those teams capable of taking a mildly irritating game and making it disappear very quickly.
Pick: Georgia
No. 24 Kentucky at South Carolina
3:15 PM CT — SEC Network
Kentucky took care of South Alabama 45-21 last week and has now followed its upset win at Texas A&M by doing exactly what good teams are supposed to do against an overmatched opponent. South Carolina, meanwhile, is coming off a rough trip to Tuscaloosa where Alabama hung 49 points on the Gamecocks.
Playing in Columbia makes this more interesting than the rankings alone suggest, but Kentucky has earned some trust over the last couple of weeks. I do not think South Carolina is completely incapable of making this a game, but right now the Wildcats look like the more reliable team.
Pick: Kentucky
Arkansas at Texas A&M
6:00 PM CT
I owe Arkansas something approaching an apology after last week.
I picked Tulsa because, well, Arkansas. The Razorbacks responded by winning 34-6, piling up nearly 500 yards and generally making the pick look ridiculous. So naturally their reward is a road trip to Texas A&M.
The Aggies desperately need a response after getting demolished 35-6 at LSU, and that is what makes this game a little more interesting than it otherwise might be. A&M was embarrassed last week, Arkansas finally looked competent, and now both teams come into this one with very different kinds of momentum.
Still, I have considerably more faith in Texas A&M bouncing back at home than I do in Arkansas making me apologize for two straight weeks.
Pick: Texas A&M
McNeese at No. 11 LSU
6:45 PM CT — SEC Network
LSU needed a response after losing at Ole Miss, and the Tigers got one by hammering Texas A&M 35-6 last Saturday. Now McNeese comes into Baton Rouge for the sort of game where the main objective is to win comfortably, stay healthy and not give anybody anything embarrassing to discuss on Sunday morning.
If this becomes interesting late, something has gone terribly wrong.
Pick: LSU
Auburn at No. 17 Tennessee
2:30 PM CT — Knoxville, Tennessee
This is exactly what the Sleeper Game is supposed to be. It is not hidden, it is not meaningless, and Tennessee being ranked No. 17 means nobody is exactly forgetting the Volunteers exist, but with Alabama-Mississippi State and Florida-Missouri sitting higher on the marquee, this feels like the kind of game everybody starts flipping over to in the second half.
Tennessee came within three points of knocking off No. 1 Texas last Saturday, losing 20-17 in Neyland. The Volunteers did not get the signature win, but they proved enough for me to believe they are a real problem in the SEC this season. The challenge now is recovering from that kind of emotional game, because Auburn is exactly the sort of opponent you do not want to see after spending the previous week emptying the tank against the No. 1 team in the country.
Auburn is not spectacular, but the Tigers are coming off a 21-15 win over Vanderbilt, and they are perfectly capable of making this ugly. If Auburn can hang around, shorten the game, and force Tennessee into a few mistakes, Neyland could go from loud and confident to nervous in a hurry.
Ultimately, though, I think Tennessee is better. The Volunteers showed me enough against Texas that I trust them to respond, even if I do not expect this to be especially comfortable.
Titanquisitor Pick: Tennessee
SATURDAY’S PICKS
No. 7 Alabama over No. 16 Mississippi State
No. 8 Florida over No. 25 Missouri
No. 17 Tennessee over Auburn
No. 24 Kentucky over South Carolina
Texas A&M over Arkansas
No. 11 LSU over McNeese
No. 2 Georgia over Vanderbilt
Last week, Mississippi State was the team I told you not to sleep on, and the Bulldogs responded by beating ranked Missouri and moving to 4-0. Now they are ranked No. 16 and hosting Alabama with a chance to turn an interesting September into something much bigger.
That is what makes Saturday fun. By early afternoon, we are either going to be talking about Mississippi State as one of the biggest stories in the SEC, or Alabama is going to remind everybody that beating Missouri doesn’t necessarily mean you are ready for Alabama.
Either way, No. 7 Alabama at No. 16 Mississippi State is the Titanquisitor Game of the Week, Florida-Missouri gets the slot, and Auburn-Tennessee is the one I would keep within reach of the remote.
I have a feeling about that one.
