In the week since we last did this, a lot of football was played and a new CFP ranking was revealed, and both of those things combined to show us just how quickly things can change once the teams actually take the field and play some football.
Georgia has taken over the No. 1 spot after absolutely dismantling Ole Miss 42-7 last Saturday, Alabama jumped up to No. 3 after going into Baton Rouge and beating LSU 31-13, Texas climbed to No. 6 after surviving Missouri, and Tennessee moved up to No. 8 after beating the hell out of Kentucky 34-6. South Carolina is now No. 17 after winning its fourth straight, Ole Miss falls to No. 19, LSU hangs on at No. 21, and Missouri drops to No. 22.
And this week, November will continue doing its thing as some teams climb, others fall, and the talking heads on TV and online argue over the rankings for another few days until they change again.
We also learned a few things last week. Georgia looked absolutely dominant in its systematic destruction of Ole Miss, and I don’t see how anyone could think Utah or UCLA should be ahead of them just because they’re undefeated. Alabama may have finally gotten healthy at the right time, as things came together for the Tide offensively in the second half during the thrashing of LSU. Tennessee took losing to South Carolina very personally and used that anger to dismantle Kentucky. South Carolina keeps winning. Auburn managed to survive Arkansas, so good for them. And Texas went to Missouri and came out with a quality win.
Which brings us to Saturday.
Texas goes into Death Valley at night with its Playoff hopes possibly on the line. Missouri travels to Athens to face the new No. 1 team in the country. Alabama visits Vanderbilt in what better not become one of those weird afternoons Alabama seems to have every year under DeBoer where the team somehow forgets how to play on the road against an unranked opponent. Tennessee heads to Texas A&M. Ole Miss goes to Oklahoma trying to recover from getting flattened by Georgia. Florida visits Kentucky with hopes of getting back on track.
Auburn heads to Starkville, where Mississippi State desperately needs a win if it wants to be bowl eligible. I’m old, so I forget that few teams care about bowl games now and that a five-loss team can still get in once others decline invites, and yes, I’m assuming State will beat Tennessee Tech next week to get to five wins, although Tennessee Tech is 9-1 and wouldn’t that be hilarious for a team that seemed so promising in September. What a sentence that was.
South Carolina, meanwhile, is the opposite of Mississippi State, as the Gamecocks will be looking to pick up their fifth straight win when they travel to Arkansas. I won’t call it a gimmie, because anything can happen in the World Wrest… on any given Saturday, but come on, this should be an easy dub for USC.
So we have eight conference games, and of course I’ll watch as many of them as I can, but it’s called 2 Games 2 Watch so we’ll shine the spotlight on two of them and then lightly touch on the others. Let’s get to it.
No. 6 Texas at No. 21 LSU
6:30 PM CT — ABC — Baton Rouge, Louisiana
Well, Texas gets LSU at Death Valley at night, something Lane Kiffin desperately wanted for Alabama, and LSU is coming off a thrashing to Alabama. So, have fun Texas!
The Longhorns enter at 7-2 and No. 6 in the College Football Playoff rankings after beating Missouri 34-20 last Saturday. That score makes the game look a little more comfortable than it actually was because Texas had to rally in the fourth quarter, with Arch Manning throwing the go-ahead touchdown before the Longhorns finally pulled away.
That win was Texas’ fourth against a ranked opponent this season, and for a team that looked like it might be drifting out of the Playoff picture a month ago, the Longhorns have done an excellent job of dragging themselves right back into it.
They have also reached the point where another loss probably changes the conversation completely, but not necessarily eliminating them. Still, it’s better to take care of business instead of hoping others stumble to help you out.
LSU is coming from the opposite direction.
The Tigers are 6-3, ranked No. 21, and just lost 31-13 at home to Alabama in a game that was actually much more competitive than the final score suggests in terms of stats anyway. LSU outgained Alabama 457-285, Sam Leavitt threw for 380 yards, and the Tigers ran 28 more offensive plays than the Tide. And yet, in the only category that truly matters, LSU still lost by 18. What a miserable set of football stats for fans of the Tigers.
Alabama made the plays that mattered, stopped LSU repeatedly on fourth down and scored the final 14 points of the game while the Tigers spent much of the afternoon moving the ball without getting hardly anything out of it
Now LSU gets Texas, at night, in Death Valley and the opportunity to redeem themselves on their home turf. Kiffin received some deserved criticism from LSU fans last week, and it certainly wouldn’t look good for him and the Tigers to fall at home two weeks in a row, and especially in a night game that they always talk about how unbeatable LSU is at home in night games.
And this is where things become dangerous for the Longhorns, because LSU’s Playoff hopes are hanging by a thread at best. The Tigers aren’t playing Saturday with the same kind of pressure Texas is. LSU can still finish the season strong, improve its position, make a last grasp push for the CFP, and make life miserable for everybody else, but the Longhorns are the team walking into Baton Rouge knowing that one bad night could undo almost everything they have repaired over the past month.
That makes this exactly the sort of game I hate picking against LSU. Because I think Texas is probably the better team, and not because Texas is ranked higher, but because Texas has been playing better football lately. Not that LSU played poorly against Alabama, again just look at the stats.
But I don’t care about how good Texas looks. We’ve also seen Texas look fairly middle of the pack, and Arch Manning can easily get rattled. It wasn’t many weeks ago the big talk was about how Texas would have to bench Manning. LSU wants to bring those problems back to the surface.
Death Valley at night remains one of the most hostile environments in college football, and LSU showed against Alabama that the offense can move the ball against a very good defense. The problem last week was turning all those yards into points.
If the Tigers do that Saturday, Texas is going to have a very uncomfortable evening.
Arch Manning has been much better over the past several weeks, and Texas has shown it can win close games instead of collapsing when everything doesn’t go according to plan. The Longhorns were tested at Missouri and came through, something they failed to do earlier in the year a couple of times.
But LSU is different. The Tigers just got embarrassed on the scoreboard at home despite statistically playing Alabama much closer than 31-13. Now they get another highly ranked team walking into Tiger Stadium with something LSU would very much enjoy taking away: the Playoff hopes of Texas (I still think Texas gets in with three losses, assuming its close, deserved or not).
I think LSU is too good of a team to lose back-to-back at home against top-6 teams. Would it be funny for LSU to lose, if for no other reason than to laugh at Lane Kiffin? Yes, of course, but I don’t see it happening.
Gary’s Pick: LSU
No. 22 Missouri at No. 1 Georgia
2:30 PM CT — ABC — Athens, Georgia
Georgia stumbled out of an emotional, heavyweight brawl against Alabama and lost to an Auburn team that isn’t very good and everyone since then has had to pay for it. In the wake of that loss, the Bulldogs have beaten Florida 27-8 and then walked into Oxford last Saturday and absolutely destroyed Ole Miss 42-7. Georgia rushed for nearly 300 yards, held the Rebels usually explosive offense to their lowest point total of the season and led 28-0 before halftime. Gunner Stockton threw four touchdown passes and ran for another. It was a complete demolishing of a team that had been in the top 10.
The College Football Playoff committee responded by moving Georgia to No. 1, which wasn’t hard since Miami lost to Notre Dame, but would’ve been justified even over an undefeated Miami considering how dominant Georgia has looked.
Missouri gets them next, and for a team looking to rebound from a tough loss to a top 10 team, good luck. Missouri’s going to need it, and they’re definitely going to be moving in the rankings on Tuesday… just out of the top 25 rather than back up it. And for a team that had hopes for a Playoff spot just a week ago, they’re now staring down a fourth loss.
The Tigers are 6-3 and No. 22 after losing 34-20 to Texas last week, but Missouri actually gave the Longhorns plenty of trouble before Texas pulled away late. The Tigers have been one of those teams all season that is good enough to make nearly anybody uncomfortable without quite being good enough to consistently finish the job against the best teams on the schedule. And now they get the best team in the country, and in Athens at that
Missouri’s best chance probably comes from doing what very few teams have managed against Georgia this year: make the Bulldogs uncomfortable early and force them into a game where they actually have to chase points.
Auburn did it, and that shows that it can be done by even one of the lowest SEC teams. Missouri is better than Auburn, so it’s not like they have no chance.
The problem is Georgia appears to have learned something from that afternoon. The Bulldogs have been ruthless since then.
Missouri needs sustained drives, needs to avoid turnovers (and one of the strong points of Georgia’s defense is the ability to create turnovers) and they absolutely can’t spend the first quarter punting while Georgia builds one of those 17-0 leads that turns the rest of the afternoon into damage control. The Tigers also need Ahmad Hardy involved and productive because allowing Georgia’s defense to simply attack the passing game is not going to produce an enjoyable strategy. Missouri will have to establish the running game, and Hardy is one of the better backs in the country. If they can’t control the line and get the run game working, then it’s going to be a long day for Missouri fans.
On the other side, I have no idea why Georgia would stop running the ball until somebody actually proves capable of stopping it. Ole Miss certainly couldn’t, but they couldn’t stop much of anything last week.
Georgia finished with 295 rushing yards last week and has enough depth to keep pounding away without asking one player to carry the entire workload. Once that starts working, Stockton becomes more dangerous because the entire defense has to respect what is happening behind him.
Missouri is a good team, but Georgia is just better in every measurable way. And right now Georgia looks angry, like the loss to Auburn just pissed them off and now they don’t want to just win games but dominate them in blowouts.
SEC Nation will be in Athens Saturday morning, the Bulldogs are No. 1 for the first time this season (in the CFP), and Missouri gets the unfortunate privilege of walking into Sanford Stadium while Georgia is at its most dominant.
I don’t think this is another 42-7 beating, because I think Missouri is too good for me to expect that. But I also don’t think the Tigers have enough to survive four quarters.
Georgia keeps rolling.
Gary’s Pick: Georgia
Auburn at Mississippi State
11:00 AM CT — ESPN2
The Tigers finally stopped the bleeding last Saturday with a 26-23 win over Arkansas, although naturally Auburn couldn’t simply win a normal football game. Byrum Brown threw for 180 yards, ran for another 120, and Alex McPherson kicked the game-winning 42-yard field goal with 33 seconds remaining. Auburn is now 5-4 and one win away from bowl eligibility, and they should get it this week. Please let them get it this week; I would like nothing more than for Auburn to have a little winning streak heading into the Iron Bowl and something for their fans to feel good back. Because lord knows the last thing any Alabama fan wants is some terrible Auburn team on a losing streak coming into the Iron Bowl and suddenly transforming into one of the best teams in the country.
Mississippi State is also coming off another painful afternoon, losing 25-23 to Vanderbilt after nearly erasing a 16-0 halftime deficit. The Bulldogs have now lost five straight after starting 4-0, which is a spectacularly unpleasant way to watch a season disappear.
If Mississippi State is going to turn it around and get a win, this is going to have to be it. Auburn isn’t very good, but since losing their QB State has completely fallen apart. Close last week, so maybe this is the week the Bulldogs can etch out a win.
I’m picking Auburn though, because despite everything that has happened since the Georgia win, the Tigers still have more evidence that they can actually finish one of these games. It may take another field goal with 30 seconds left. But I think they get bowl eligible before playing Samford, and go into the Iron Bowl with a respectable 7-4 record.
Pick: Auburn
No. 3 Alabama at Vanderbilt
11:45 AM CT — SEC Network
I would like a normal football game. That’s literally all I’m asking for. I don’t want officials involved, I don’t want everything that can go wrong going wrong in the same game, I just want a routine game of football.
Our beloved Crimson Tide went into Death Valley last Saturday, absorbed everything LSU threw at them and walked out with a 31-13 win. Keelon Russell battled through an ankle injury, threw three touchdown passes, and Alabama’s defense repeatedly made the biggest plays of the afternoon despite LSU piling up 457 yards of offense.
The committee rewarded Alabama by moving the Tide to No. 3.
So naturally the next opponent is Vanderbilt, which has certainly been a team that have given Alabama fits the past two years (thankfully shouldn’t be the case this year). But Vanderbilt is exactly the type of team I refuse to laugh at. If the DeBoer era, and I say that as someone who likes DeBoer and hasn’t at any point wanted him fired, has taught us anything it’s that Alabama has a way of walking into games against unranked teams that should be a fairly easy and routine win and doing everything possible to beat themselves.
The Commodores finally picked up their first SEC win last week, beating Mississippi State 25-23 and snapping a five-game losing streak. Vanderbilt controlled the first half, survived Mississippi State’s comeback and did enough late to escape Starkville.
On paper, Alabama should win this one rather comfortably. The game isn’t played on paper though, and Alabama can’t go into Nashville with the mindset of they’ve already won just by showing up and being Alabama.
But this is November, Alabama just played an emotional road game at LSU, and the Iron Bowl is sitting only a couple of weeks away. This is exactly where a team can wander into Nashville half asleep and suddenly spend three quarters wondering why Vanderbilt is still within ten points or closer, or God forbid has the lead. Please don’t do that.
Russell’s ankle is also something worth watching, although he was able to finish the LSU game and played extremely well despite the injury. Alabama doesn’t need him trying to be Superman against Vanderbilt, and actually I think this would be the perfect chance to start Austin Mack and see how he does. Put Russell in for a few snaps, or more if the game is on the line, but I’d rest Russell and some others as much as possible this week and next. Get to the Iron Bowl, and hopefully the last SEC Championship, with as healthy a team as possible.
Get ahead, run the football (you hear that Grubb, run the damn ball), play defense, and get everybody home healthy. That’s the plan, let’s execute it. And for God’s sakes, just don’t lose to the team that lost to Arkansas. Roll Tide!
Pick: Alabama
No. 8 Tennessee at Texas A&M
2:00 PM CT — ESPN
Tennessee reminded everybody last week that the South Carolina loss didn’t suddenly make the Volunteers a bad football team, and Kentucky found that out the hard way in a 34-6 beating that sent Tennessee all the way up to No. 8 in the CFP rankings. Texas A&M had a much rougher afternoon in Columbia, leading South Carolina 9-7 after three quarters before the Gamecocks scored ten unanswered in the fourth and handed the Aggies a 17-9 loss without allowing them to score a touchdown.
Kyle Field makes this interesting because Texas A&M is never an easy out at home, but the Aggies desperately need to find some offense if they want any chance here because trying to beat Tennessee with field goals is a rather terrible way to spend a Saturday. The Volunteers have had their weird moments this season, but when they get rolling they can bury a team quickly, and after what they just did to Kentucky, I trust Tennessee to finish this one without much problem.
Pick: Tennessee
No. 19 Ole Miss at Oklahoma
3:15 PM CT — SEC Network
Ole Miss probably had better things planned for last Saturday, but Georgia ruined them and in embarrassing fashion. The Rebels entered that game ranked No. 10 and walked out after getting demolished 42-7, their lowest-scoring performance of the season and one of the ugliest losses anywhere in the SEC this year, and now their reward is a trip to Norman against an Oklahoma team that has improved quite a bit and isn’t quite the joke they seemed like earlier.
Oklahoma has been one of the strangest teams in the conference all season, capable of looking competent one week and completely lost the next, but Norman is still not an easy place to play. Ole Miss needs to prove the Georgia game was exactly that, one awful afternoon against what may currently be the best team in the country, and while their Playoff hopes took an enormous hit, they still have plenty to play for. I expect some anger, some offense, and a Rebel team that looks a whole lot more like itself instead of whatever that was they put on the field last week.
Pick: Ole Miss
Florida at No. 11 Kentucky
5:15 PM CT — ESPN
Neither of these teams enjoyed last Saturday, although Kentucky definitely had the worse afternoon. The Wildcats entered Knoxville ranked No. 6 in the CFP standings and left after getting hammered 34-6 by Tennessee, dropping them to No. 11 and changing the entire feel around a season that had been cruising along pretty comfortably. Florida has been inconsistent all year, but the Gators have also shown they can beat good football teams, which makes this one harder to read than the rankings would suggest.
Kentucky is at home, has the better record, and should probably be my pick, but I’m taking Florida. The Wildcats have now lost two of their last three, and after what Tennessee just did to them I want to see how they respond before I trust them against a Florida team that has spent most of the season alternating between looking dangerous and making everybody wonder what the hell happened. This may be my stupid pick of the week, but we’ll find out. I’m making it because I don’t view Kentucky as highly as some folks do, and think they could just easily be sitting there with five losses right now as opposed to just the two. I also don’t trust Kentucky football, yet, to hang on to a playoff spot. They’re losing at least one of their next three games, and possibly two of them. I’m taking Florida to bounce back.
Pick: Florida
No. 17 South Carolina at Arkansas
6:45 PM CT — SEC Network
At this point, I have stopped waiting for South Carolina to cool off. The Gamecocks have won four straight against Florida, Tennessee, Oklahoma and Texas A&M, and while last Saturday’s win over the Aggies wasn’t pretty, but it didn’t need to be. South Carolina trailed 9-7 after three quarters, scored ten unanswered in the fourth and won 17-9, with LaNorris Sellers throwing for 251 yards and running for the clinching 41-yard touchdown while dealing with an injured ankle. Sometimes good teams don’t play their best game, they just find a way to win.
Arkansas came painfully close to getting one last week before losing 26-23 at Auburn on a field goal with 33 seconds left, and I continue to feel bad for Razorbacks fans because this season feels specifically designed to test how much emotional damage one fan base can absorb. Now possibly the hottest team in the SEC comes to Fayetteville, Sellers is playing excellent football, the defense just held Texas A&M without a touchdown, and I’m done waiting for the Gamecocks to fall off. South Carolina gets win number five in a row before their date with destiny against a Georgia team that is looking unstoppable.
Pick: South Carolina
SATURDAY’S PICKS
I’ve got LSU over Texas in the Game of the Week, Georgia over Missouri in the second Game 2 Watch, Alabama over Vanderbilt, Auburn over Mississippi State, Tennessee over Texas A&M, Ole Miss over Oklahoma, Florida over Kentucky and South Carolina over Arkansas.
Yes, I realize that means I’m picking No. 21 LSU over No. 6 Texas, unranked Florida over No. 11 Kentucky, and somehow trusting Auburn to win a road game, so this could either go wonderfully or become evidence used against me Sunday morning. That’s college football, and more importantly, that’s the SEC… where it just means, nah I’m not going to finish that stupid slogan.
Saturday starts with Auburn-Mississippi State at 11, followed by Alabama-Vanderbilt at 11:45, Tennessee-Texas A&M at 2, Missouri-Georgia at 2:30 and Ole Miss-Oklahoma at 3:15. Florida-Kentucky takes us into the evening at 5:15, then the fun really starts with No. 6 Texas walking into Death Valley for a 6:30 ABC night game against No. 21 LSU while No. 17 South Carolina visits Arkansas fifteen minutes later. That’s a full day of football, and with the Sleeper Game of the Week officially retired, there really isn’t any need to force one anyway. By mid-November nobody is sleeping on anybody.
Georgia is No. 1, Alabama is No. 3, Texas is fighting to stay inside the Playoff, LSU gets a chance to ruin somebody else’s season, South Carolina apparently forgot how to lose, and Auburn is one win away from bowl eligibility, which seemed a lot less likely a couple of weeks ago. We’re officially running out of regular-season Saturdays, so enjoy every damn one of them.
No. 6 Texas at No. 21 LSU is the Titanquisitor Game of the Week, with No. 22 Missouri at No. 1 Georgia getting the second game to watch distinction. See you Saturday.
